Discovery CEO Adrian Gore Warns: South Africa’s Economic Fate Hinges on Narrative Over Reality In the complex theatre of global economics, perception often trumps fact. For emerging markets like South Africa, this dynamic isn’t just an academic observation—it’s a fundamental force that can dictate national prosperity or decline. This is the stark warning issued by Adrian Gore, the Chief Executive of Discovery Group, who argues that the story told about a country can become its self-fulfilling prophecy. Speaking to journalists during a briefing organised by Business for South Africa (B4SA), Gore articulated a compelling case for why narrative is a primary driver of economic reality. B4SA, a powerful coalition of approximately 160 companies and their CEOs, has positioned itself at the forefront of tackling the nation’s most pressing challenges. At the heart of their mission is a single, powerful idea: to change the story being told about South Africa. The Narrative Flywheel: From Virtuous to Vicious Cycles Gore’s central thesis is that “narrative is causal.” He explained, “It turns out that narrative drives economic growth. So, this flywheel has to turn, and if you get it wrong at any point, it’s problematic.” The “flywheel” is a powerful metaphor for momentum. A positive narrative attracts investment, which fuels growth, creates jobs, and reinforces the positive story—a virtuous cycle. Conversely, a negative narrative can trigger a vicious cycle: it repels capital, stifles growth, increases unemployment, and validates the initial pessimism. “The focus of the partnership really has been around trying to turn this flywheel and create a virtuous cycle in the process,” Gore stated. He pointed to the volatile swings in South Africa’s international narrative over the past year as a textbook example of this phenomenon in action. A Year of Dramatic Swings: From Davos Optimism to White House Tensions Gore recounted how, leading up to the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, the narrative was overwhelmingly positive. A significant reduction in structural load-shedding and the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) had created a palpable sense of momentum. “The message given early in the year was that the country was moving forward. At that point, we felt it was a virtuous cycle,” Gore recalled. However, that optimism proved fragile. The narrative soon soured. Internal bickering within the GNU and a rapid deterioration of relations with the United States created a perfect storm of negative press. Gore highlighted specific flashpoints, including new U.S. tariffs and “legislation passed in certain areas,” which culminated in a now-infamous Oval Office meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and U.S. President Donald Trump. That meeting, live-streamed for the world to see, became a pivotal moment. President Trump’s decision to theatrically dim the lights and play a controversial video juxtaposing Julius Malema’s “Kill the Boer” chant with images of farm violence was a stark illustration of how narrative can be weaponized on a global stage. Deconstructing the Corrosive Narrative The “legislation” Gore referenced is widely understood to be the new Expropriation Act. This law, which provides a framework for expropriation without compensation, became a focal point for international criticism. In February, President Trump signed an executive order citing the act, which established a refugee program for Afrikaners “escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination.” The order also criticized South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice and highlighted the country’s “reinvigorated” relations with Iran. “Suddenly, the narrative turned very, very negative. And suddenly, you are in a potentially vicious cycle where narrative drives lack of capital flow and lack of growth,” Gore lamented. He was quick to acknowledge South Africa’s very real challenges—poverty, joblessness, corruption—but insisted that the prevailing international narrative is “dramatically worse than reality.” This gap between perception and fact is where Gore believes B4SA must concentrate its efforts. “We know our country has tremendous problems and challenges… But on the other hand, it has unique resilience and potential.” The Antidote: Data, Facts, and Relentless Communication So, how does a nation combat a corrosive and often inaccurate international narrative? For Adrian Gore, the answer lies not in political arguments but in a disciplined, data-driven campaign. When asked about repairing the strained relationship with the United States, Gore admitted there is no “silver bullet.” However, he advocated for a consistent, clear message from the business community: “Certainly, we should be continuously banging the drum about working for growth, jobs, and narrative, and not being caught in other issues… We see the U.S. as an incredibly important trading partner. We should just keep banging away at that drum.” More fundamentally, Gore believes the solution is to flood the zone with accurate data. “A lot of the narrative—and the business leaders who are kind of muddying the water—are using data that is not correct,” he asserted. “The crime data, the stuff that we faced at the White House, it was not correct.” He provided a tangible example: while violent crime remains a serious concern, more granular data reveals a “dramatic reduction” in specific categories like house break-ins, hijackings, and motor vehicle theft over recent years. This is a nuanced story that gets lost in broad, alarmist headlines. Measuring What Matters: The Power of Granularity “We’re not seeing that in violent crime necessarily and we need to do more digging on that. The issue of tourist safety we need to talk about, measure properly and get that out there,” Gore explained. By focusing on specific, measurable outcomes rather than general impressions, South Africa can begin to reconstruct a narrative based on evidence. “I think dealing with data properly, in a proper rational way, will help us create a narrative that’s much more safe, secure, et cetera.” This is not about silencing critics or engaging in futile arguments. “I’m not sure we should be arguing with business leaders. We can’t muzzle people. But we need to be exposing data that’s accurate,” Gore said. The strategy is one of counter-information—providing a more compelling, fact-based story that can compete with and eventually overshadow the negative noise. A Call to Action for the Business Community Adrian Gore’s commitment to B4SA stems from a profound belief in South Africa’s underlying potential. The partnership represents a concerted effort to shift the narrative flywheel from a vicious cycle to a virtuous one. This involves a multi-pronged approach: advocating for pro-growth policies, investing in the country despite short-term headwinds, and, most critically, tirelessly communicating progress. “It’s important we get the facts out there in the right way. We really need to expose the progress being made,” he urged. This mission is more than public relations; it is an economic imperative. In a world where capital is mobile and sentiment drives decisions, the story of South Africa is an asset that must be carefully managed and authentically told. The challenge is immense, but the alternative—allowing a distorted narrative to dictate the country’s economic destiny—is untenable. For Gore and the business leaders of B4SA, the task is clear: arm the world with facts, highlight the tangible progress, and relentlessly champion a narrative of resilience and opportunity. The future of South Africa’s economy may very well depend on it.
2025-09-27