Rwanda Braces for Heavy Rains and Strong Winds in Mid-November
The Rwanda Meteorology Agency has issued a detailed forecast, indicating a period of significant weather activity from November 11 to 20. The nation should prepare for rainfall that will not only be widespread but also exceed seasonal averages, accompanied by moderate to strong winds across various regions.
Substantial Rainfall Projected Nationwide
According to the agency’s latest data, Rwanda is expected to receive between 30 and 150 millimeters of rain during this period. This projection is notably higher than the long-term average, which typically sees rainfall amounts between 25 and 90 millimeters. The primary driver behind this wetter pattern is the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a major weather influencer. Most areas can anticipate three to five rainy days, though this will vary by location.
Regional Rainfall Breakdown
The forecast provides a granular look at expected precipitation. The Western and Northern provinces, along with parts of the Muhanga, Nyamagabe, and Nyaruguru districts, are set to receive the highest deluge, with a staggering 120 to 150 millimeters of rain.
Areas including sections of the City of Kigali, the Northern, Western, and Southern provinces, as well as parts of Bugesera, Gatsibo, and Nyagatare, are forecast to receive a still-substantial 90 to 120 millimeters.
Moderate rainfall, ranging from 60 to 90 millimeters, is expected for parts of Kigali, Bugesera, Rwamagana, Kayonza, and Ngoma districts, in addition to central parts of Nyagatare and Gatsibo. The remaining areas of the Eastern Province are likely to see the lowest amounts, between 30 and 60 millimeters.
Temperature Forecast: A Tale of Two Climates
While the rains are set to be heavy, daytime temperatures will remain within their usual seasonal range, hovering between 20°C and 30°C. However, a distinct contrast will be felt across the country.
The warmest daytime temperatures, between 28°C and 30°C, are expected in several parts of Kigali, Rwamagana, Kayonza, Nyagatare, Bugesera, Kirehe, Gatsibo, and the Amayaga region.
In contrast, residents in areas of Nyabihu, Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru, Musanze, and neighboring districts will experience cooler days, with temperatures ranging from a brisk 20°C to 22°C.
When the sun sets, night-time temperatures will drop to between 9°C and 19°C. The coldest nights, dipping to 9°C-11°C, are anticipated in parts of Nyabihu, Musanze, Ngororero, Nyaruguru, and Nyamagabe. Warmer nights, between 17°C and 19°C, are more likely in parts of Kigali, Bugesera, Kayonza, Kirehe, Gatsibo, and the Amayaga region.
Wind Patterns Add to Dynamic Weather Mix
Adding another layer to the forecast, moderate to strong winds are predicted to sweep across the country, with speeds ranging from 4 to 12 meters per second.
The strongest winds, between 8 and 12 meters per second, are likely to impact parts of Rubavu, Kigali, Kayonza, Nyaruguru, Nyamagabe, Rusizi, Karongi, and Rutsiro.
More moderate winds, between 4 and 6 meters per second, are expected in many parts of the Nyagatare, Gakenke, Ngoma, Gicumbi, Muhanga, and Ruhango districts. The rest of the country should prepare for winds ranging from 6 to 8 meters per second.
This combination of above-average rainfall and significant winds suggests a period of active and potentially disruptive weather, prompting residents and authorities to take necessary precautions.
Source: Rwanda Meteorology Agency