Rwanda’s economy has shifted into a higher gear, posting a remarkable year-on-year expansion of 11.8% in the third quarter of 2025. This surge propelled the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Rwf 5,525 billion, a significant leap from Rwf 4,659 billion in the same period last year. This double-digit growth represents a notable acceleration from the 7.8% and 6.5% growth recorded in the second and first quarters of 2025, respectively, signaling a strengthening economic momentum as the year progresses.
The data, jointly released by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, reveals an economy firing on multiple cylinders. To understand the structure of this growth, we must look at the sectoral contributions: Services remained the dominant force, accounting for 57% of GDP, followed by Industry (22%), Agriculture (15%), and Net Direct Taxes (6%).
The Industrial Engine: Construction as the Catalyst
The 22% industrial sector growth was a powerhouse, driven by substantial gains across its subsectors. Construction led the charge with a 20% increase, but its true impact is seen in its ripple effect. As Ivan Murenzi, Director General of NISR, highlighted, this construction boom is intrinsically linked to manufacturing growth. The production of cement (a non-metal product) skyrocketed by 44%, directly feeding infrastructure and real estate projects. Similarly, metal products grew by 28%, and chemicals like paints and soaps by 25%. This illustrates a classic example of backward linkage in economics, where demand in one sector (construction) stimulates production in its supply chains (manufacturing), creating a virtuous cycle of investment and employment.
Agricultural Resilience and Strategic Shifts
Agriculture, often vulnerable to climatic and market shocks, demonstrated robust growth of 10%. The standout performance came from export crops, which surged by 35%. This was powered by a 32% increase in coffee production and a staggering 100% growth in tea harvests. This suggests successful initiatives in crop intensification, improved farming techniques, or favorable weather conditions for these key foreign exchange earners. Furthermore, food crop production rebounded with 4% growth, recovering from a 10% decline in Q3 2024. This recovery is crucial for food security, stabilizing local markets, and mitigating inflationary pressures on staple foods.
The Services Sector: A Mixed Picture with Clear Leaders
The services sector, the largest contributor to GDP, showed dynamic but uneven performance. Wholesale and retail trade exploded by 20%, indicating strong domestic consumer demand and vibrant commercial activity. Information and Communication (17% growth) underscores Rwanda’s continued digital transformation, while Financial Services (10%) points to deepening financial inclusion and intermediation. However, the 3% decline in Hotels and Restaurants is a data point worth monitoring, potentially reflecting seasonal tourism fluctuations or changing travel patterns. The 16% contraction in Health Services, as clarified by Finance Minister Yusuf Murangwa, should be interpreted contextually: it indicates growth did not exceed the previous period’s high benchmark, not an absolute collapse in service provision.
Contextualizing the Growth Trajectory
This quarterly report is more than a snapshot; it’s a chapter in Rwanda’s longer-term economic narrative. The accelerating growth from Q1 (6.5%) to Q3 (11.8%) suggests that government policies, private sector investments, and perhaps external factors are aligning favorably. The construction-led industrial growth aligns with national development goals focused on infrastructure and urbanization. The stellar performance of agricultural exports supports economic stability and trade balances.
However, sustainable growth requires this momentum to be broad-based and inclusive. The next steps will involve ensuring that the benefits of this construction and manufacturing boom translate into sustained job creation, skills development, and further diversification to build resilience against future global or domestic economic shocks. The Q3 2025 figures are a strong indicator of current economic health and provide a robust foundation for future planning and investment.