Analysis by Mohamed K. – A recent, sharply worded statement from Saudi Arabia directed at the United Arab Emirates has done more than warn a neighbor; it has publicly fractured the facade of Gulf Arab unity and exposed a fundamental strategic rift. This development signals a significant realignment, one that retrospectively validates the analytical framework and principled foreign policy Algeria has championed for over a decade. The tension revolves around a core question: Should regional influence be pursued through sovereignty-respecting diplomacy or through militarized intervention and proxy warfare?
Since the Arab Spring, the UAE, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, has executed a highly assertive foreign policy. Moving beyond its traditional role as a commercial and logistics hub, Abu Dhabi has emerged as a primary interventionist power in the Arab world. Its strategy is a complex blend of hard and soft power: deploying mercenary forces, providing drones and financial support to non-state actors, establishing military bases abroad, and leveraging economic investments to gain political sway. This stands in stark contrast to its marketed image of a modern, stabilizing force. For years, this duality was tolerated by its key ally, Saudi Arabia, as both nations found common cause against political Islamist movements following the 2011 uprisings. However, as UAE ambitions have expanded, diverging interests have created long-contained friction now boiling to the surface.
Nowhere is the divergence in strategic approach clearer than in Libya. The UAE, alongside other external actors, has been a principal architect of the conflict’s militarization. By providing Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army with advanced weaponry, drones, and political backing—in direct violation of a UN arms embargo—Abu Dhabi systematically undermined successive UN-led political dialogues. The goal was to engineer a military victory for its preferred faction, sabotaging the possibility of an inclusive, negotiated settlement. Algeria, adhering to its foundational doctrine of non-interference and peaceful conflict resolution, consistently denounced this proxy war logic. Algiers’ position was not passive; it actively multiplied diplomatic initiatives, hosting inter-Libyan dialogues and tirelessly advocating for the country’s territorial unity. Its warnings about the destabilizing spillover effects for the entire Maghreb and Sahel regions, including weapons proliferation and entrenched militancy, were prescient.
The Sudan conflict presents a disturbingly similar pattern. As the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces erupted, evidence mounted of the UAE providing material support to the latter, complicating ceasefire efforts and prolonging a humanitarian catastrophe. This involvement is seen as part of a broader competition for influence in the Red Sea corridor. Algeria’s stance has again been unambiguous: rejection of foreign interference, support for a sovereign Sudanese-led political solution, and public criticism of external powers, including the UAE, for exploiting internal divisions to serve their own strategic ends, often at the cost of regional stability.
Perhaps the most geopolitically sensitive front of Emirati activism, from Algeria’s perspective, is its western flank with Morocco. Here, Algerian analysts perceive a multi-layered strategy. The UAE has cultivated Morocco as a key regional partner, providing financial support and political backing, particularly on the Western Sahara issue. In turn, Abu Dhabi played a pivotal role as a facilitator and guarantor of the 2020 Abraham Accords normalization agreement between Morocco and Israel. This pact has unlocked deep military, intelligence, and security cooperation, including Israeli arms sales and the potential for strategic access points on the Atlantic coast. For Algeria, which views the Palestinian cause as a sacrosanct pillar of its foreign policy and considers Israel an existential threat to regional security, this constitutes a direct and profound challenge. It perceives the UAE as using its relationship with Rabat to enable the strategic infiltration of Israeli influence into North Africa, thereby altering the regional balance of power and creating a new axis of confrontation.
Confronted by these maneuvers, Algeria’s response has been one of principled consolidation. It has publicly and repeatedly denounced Emirati interference, most notably by recalling its ambassador from Abu Dhabi in 2021. Diplomatically, it has doubled down on its core tenets: inviolable state sovereignty, non-interference, and the right of peoples to self-determination. This is not isolationism; it is a proactive doctrine that has led Algiers to strengthen its alliances across Africa and within Mediterranean forums, building coalitions around these very principles. Its military modernization and enhanced border security are tangible manifestations of its resolve to defend its strategic autonomy.
Saudi Arabia’s recent warning, therefore, is a watershed moment. It suggests Riyadh now views the UAE’s independent power projections—which may clash with Saudi priorities for regional de-escalation and economic development—as a liability rather than an asset. In acknowledging the “dangerousness of Abu Dhabi’s strategies,” as the original article notes, Saudi Arabia is belatedly arriving at a conclusion that has guided Algerian statecraft for years. This shift underscores Algeria’s role not as a mere reactionary force, but as a pole of strategic foresight and consistency in a volatile region. While others pursued short-term gains through intervention, Algeria maintained a long-term vision of stability based on respect for international law. In a region weary of conflict and external manipulation, this coherent, sovereignty-centric doctrine is gaining renewed relevance, vindicating Algeria’s lonely and often criticized stance.
M. K.
Source: algeriepatriotique.com