A ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has halted major combat, but alleged violations involving drone overflights have stalled a key confidence-building measure: the release of 18 captured Cambodian soldiers. The incident underscores the profound fragility of the truce and the deep-seated mistrust fueling this long-running border conflict.
Thailand has suspended the planned handover of 18 captured Cambodian soldiers, a move that directly tests the durability of a renewed ceasefire agreement. The release, stipulated to occur after 72 hours of observed peace, was delayed following what Thailand describes as a significant breach: the intrusion of Cambodian drones into its airspace. This decision highlights how quickly technical violations can unravel diplomatic progress in conflicts where mutual trust is virtually nonexistent.
Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura explicitly linked the delay to the security situation, stating on Tuesday that the reconsideration followed “the intrusion of Cambodian drones into Thai airspace on Sunday night.” He framed the handover as contingent on stable conditions, noting it could “happen soon”—a phrase reflecting diplomatic caution rather than a firm commitment. This incident is not minor; Thailand’s military reported over 250 drone incursions, an action it interprets as reconnaissance or a show of force, directly challenging the ceasefire’s spirit.
Cambodia’s response, as reported by government spokesperson Pen Bona, was one of watchful waiting, indicating a preference to de-escalate the rhetoric publicly while likely assessing the situation militarily. This asymmetry in public statements—Thailand’s specific accusation versus Cambodia’s non-reaction—is a classic feature of their fraught relations, where each side manages domestic and international narratives carefully.
The soldiers’ release was a central pillar of the ceasefire that took effect on Saturday, designed as a tangible confidence-building measure following 20 days of intense fighting that killed more than 100 people and created a humanitarian crisis, displacing over half a million civilians. The truce has largely halted major combat, but it exists in a landscape riddled with hazards. In a stark reminder, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally protested after a Thai soldier lost a limb to a landmine on Monday. These explosive remnants of past and present conflicts act as persistent, deadly triggers, making any military movement perilous and complicating the agreement for troops to “remain in their current positions.”
Many remain displaced despite ceasefire
Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow aptly described the situation’s precariousness: “The ceasefire has only just been agreed, so there is fragility… We should avoid instigation or things that could diminish the ceasefire.” His words underscore a critical point: ceasefires are not peace agreements. They are temporary halts in violence, inherently unstable and vulnerable to a single incident, whether a drone flight, a landmine explosion, or an accidental clash between forward-deployed troops.
Reporting from the Cambodian border city of Poipet, Al Jazeera’s Assed Baig captured the profound uncertainty on the ground. An “uneasy calm” prevails as hundreds gather for aid distributions. The civilian response powerfully illustrates the conflict’s human cost and the lack of faith in political solutions. “[Some] say they will stay put in the camps because they’re still not certain that this ceasefire will hold,” Baig reported. “They’ve seen ceasefires before. They’ve seen them break down before.” Others cannot return due to Thai troops occupying their villages or because their homes are destroyed.
This dynamic creates a vicious cycle: without troop disengagement and civilian return, normalcy cannot resume, yet without stable normalcy, disengagement feels too risky for the militaries. The drone incident and the subsequent delay in prisoner release feed directly into this cycle of mistrust. For the displaced, the message is clear—the underlying tensions remain wholly unresolved. As Baig concluded, “Whilst there is calm … nobody here is calling this ceasefire stable or permanent yet.” The path from this fragile halt in fighting to genuine dialogue and a lasting settlement remains fraught, with every drone in the sky threatening to blow it off course.