Ethiopia on the Brink: How Evolving International Law Exposes a Failing State
The Legal Foundations of Statehood
The modern state system, established by the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, was later codified in the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States. This international legal framework outlines four essential criteria for statehood:
- A defined territory
- A permanent population
- An effective government
- The capacity to enter into international relations
While Ethiopia technically meets these formal requirements with its 120 million population and historical diplomatic engagements, the country faces a growing governance crisis that threatens its status as a functioning state under international law.
The Control Crisis in Ethiopia
The Ethiopian government’s inability to maintain authority in key regions like Amhara and Oromia has led to:
- Escalating breakdown of law and order
- Widespread extrajudicial violence
- Administrative paralysis
Video credit to: Ethiopia Insight
According to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, the government has not only lost its monopoly on violence but has been implicated in severe human rights violations.
Modern Standards of Effective Governance
International law has evolved beyond the basic Montevideo criteria. The Tinoco Arbitration Case established that control alone could satisfy governance requirements, but contemporary interpretations demand:
- Protection of fundamental human rights
- Prevention of mass atrocities
- Accountability for violations
Ethiopia’s government effectiveness score of just 24% and its position as the 12th most fragile state globally indicate a government failing to meet these modern standards.
The Philosophical Basis of Legitimate Governance
The social contract theories of Hobbes and Locke provide the philosophical foundation for modern state legitimacy:
- Hobbes emphasized the state’s role in preventing chaos
- Locke stressed protection of individual rights
Ethiopia’s government, while party to international human rights covenants, has consistently failed to uphold these obligations in practice.
Human Rights Violations and State Failure
A joint UN-Ethiopian Human Rights Commission report documented:
- Extrajudicial executions
- Systematic torture
- Sexual and gender-based violence
- Forced displacement
The government’s failure to protect citizens from these abuses, and its complicity in some cases, represents a fundamental breach of the social contract.
The Path Forward
While Ethiopia maintains the formal trappings of statehood, its governance crisis threatens its continued viability as a functioning state. To avert collapse, Ethiopia must:
- Restore effective control through legitimate means
- Implement comprehensive human rights protections
- Undertake meaningful institutional reforms
Main photo: 47th Anniversary of the Establishment of the Western Command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, May 2025, Nekemte, Ethiopia.
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license. Original article available at Ethiopia Insight.