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Algeria Surpasses Morocco and Tunisia in World Bank Income Rankings
North Africa’s Economic Landscape Shifts as Algeria Moves Up
The World Bank’s latest income classification update has delivered significant news for North Africa’s economic hierarchy. Algeria, the continent’s third-largest economy, has officially graduated from “lower-middle-income” to “upper-middle-income” status, with per capita income rising from $3,900 to $5,320.
This promotion places Algeria among 54 nations in the upper-middle-income bracket, including economic heavyweights like China ($12,850), Brazil ($8,140), and Turkey ($10,590), as well as regional peers such as Libya ($7,260) and South Africa ($6,530).
Regional Comparisons Tell a Telling Story
The World Bank’s July 2024 update reveals widening economic gaps between North African neighbors:
- Morocco remains stagnant at $3,760 per capita (up marginally from $3,710)
- Tunisia shows modest growth to $3,900 (from $3,840)
- Both countries remain in the lower-middle-income category alongside Egypt ($3,770) and Nigeria ($2,180)
This development comes as Algeria projects ambitious economic growth, targeting a $400 billion GDP by 2027—a 50% increase from its 2024 estimate of $267 billion.
Understanding the World Bank’s Income Tiers
The international financial institution categorizes economies based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita:
| Category | Income Range | Example Nations |
|---|---|---|
| Low-income | $1,135 or below | Niger ($590), Mali ($850) |
| Lower-middle-income | $1,136-$4,495 | Morocco, Tunisia, India |
| Upper-middle-income | $4,496-$13,935 | Algeria, Mexico, South Africa |
| High-income | $13,936+ | Qatar ($70,500), Saudi Arabia ($27,940) |
Broader African Context
The report notes significant continental shifts:
- Sub-Saharan Africa’s low-income countries decreased from 75% to 45%
- One African nation (unnamed in the report) achieved high-income status
- Middle East and North Africa (MENA) now has 35% high-income economies
Energy analysts attribute Algeria’s ascent to strategic hydrocarbon sector investments and diversification efforts. The country recently signed $6 billion in renewable energy deals and launched initiatives to boost non-oil exports.
What This Means for North Africa’s Future
Economists suggest Algeria’s new classification could:
- Improve sovereign credit ratings
- Attract diversified foreign investment
- Increase bargaining power in trade negotiations
However, challenges remain. The World Bank notes that while Algeria’s per capita income grew 36% since 2021, youth unemployment persists at 25%. Neighboring Morocco and Tunisia face their own hurdles—slowing tourism recovery and agricultural droughts respectively.
As regional economic trajectories diverge, all three nations face pressing questions: Can Algeria sustain its growth momentum? Will Morocco’s automotive and aerospace sectors close the gap? Can Tunisia’s fledgling tech startup scene compensate for political instability? The next World Bank update in 2025 may provide answers.
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