A comprehensive nationwide survey by the Institute for Governance Reform (IGR) has established a crucial baseline for Sierra Leone’s political landscape nearly three years before the 2028 general elections. The report, Sierra Leone’s Political Marathon: Internal Democracy of Political Parties – Volume One, reveals a political field where Mr. Sheik Kamara, the ‘Jagaban’ of the opposition All People’s Congress (APC), holds a statistically significant and unique position as the only potential flagbearer with majority voter endorsement.
Conducted from December 9-14, 2025, the study of 1,200 respondents (±3% margin of error) moves beyond mere horse-race polling. It provides a diagnostic assessment of internal party democracy—a critical but often overlooked factor in the health of a political system. The timing is strategic, offering parties and citizens a data-driven mirror to reflect on governance structures long before campaign rhetoric heats up.
The core finding is stark: Jagaban commands a 63% national likability rating and, more critically, a 51% electability score. No other aspirant from either the APC or the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) breached the 50% threshold. This suggests a political environment where one figure has consolidated broad-based appeal early, potentially simplifying the APC’s succession planning while leaving the SLPP’s nomination “open and competitive.” The electability metric is particularly telling; it measures not just personal popularity but the perceived likelihood of winning a national election, indicating that voters see Jagaban as a viable general election candidate, not just a party favorite.
However, the report’s deeper value lies in its exploration of the democratic deficit within parties themselves. A mere 18% of party members report participating in primary nomination processes, with only 26% voting in primaries. This exposes a systemic issue: the formal structures of delegate-based selection are perceived by many supporters as being hijacked by a “small number of senior officials.” This creates a dangerous disconnect, where the rank-and-file feel sidelined in choosing the very leaders who are supposed to represent their interests. In essence, the report warns that parties risk becoming unaccountable oligarchies, undermining their legitimacy as democratic vehicles.
The survey also uncovers a sophisticated electorate with clear priorities for leadership. Beyond tribal or regional allegiances, voters explicitly value education, proven leadership experience, and financial contribution capacity in a flagbearer. Furthermore, the data reveals strong public sentiment on constitutional and governance norms: a “significant majority” supports a two-term presidential limit, and over half oppose the immediate succession of a close relative of a serving president. These are not passive opinions; they are clear voter mandates for institutional reform and the prevention of dynastic politics.
The IGR’s work thus serves a dual purpose. First, it provides a snapshot of current preferences, with Jagaban as the dominant figure. Second, and more importantly, it delivers a prescriptive analysis for political parties. The message is clear: to build trust and secure long-term viability, parties must genuinely democratize their internal processes, actively engage their membership, and select candidates who align with the public’s stated values on tenure, meritocracy, and ethical succession.
As Sierra Leone prepares for its next political marathon, this report is the essential starting block. It measures not just who is ahead in the race, but the quality of the track and the rules of the competition itself.