Ethiopia Should Pursue Red Sea Access Through Diplomacy, Not Coercion
Escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea highlight the need for a strategic shift in foreign policy approaches
Growing Regional Tensions
The recent diplomatic spat between Ethiopia and Eritrea, fueled by Ethiopia’s declared intention to secure direct access to the Red Sea, has revived fears of regional conflict in the Horn of Africa.
While Ethiopia’s quest for sea access is economically and strategically justified, its confrontational approach risks alienating neighbors and destabilizing the region. Experts suggest Ethiopia should leverage its historic diplomatic influence and economic partnerships to negotiate sustainable agreements through soft power rather than confrontation.
The Maritime Access Debate
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first publicly announced Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions two years ago, recently reiterating that Ethiopia’s proximity to the Red Sea makes sea access a national priority.
Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland for Gulf of Aden access created diplomatic tensions with Somalia and increased Egyptian military involvement in the region. While the Ankara Declaration helped normalize Ethiopia-Somalia relations, focus has shifted back to Eritrea’s Assab port.
Historical Context
Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea has been marked by missed opportunities for peaceful integration. The 1952 UN-backed federation was dismantled by Emperor Haile Selassie in 1962 through annexation, sparking a 30-year independence struggle.
Analysts note Ethiopia failed to use legal or diplomatic channels to negotiate continued access to Assab port during Eritrea’s independence process, instead relying on short-term tactical alliances rather than long-term strategy.
The Soft Power Alternative
Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power—influencing others through attraction rather than coercion—offers Ethiopia a viable path forward. From 2004-2018, Ethiopia’s economic growth and peacekeeping leadership enhanced its regional standing.
However, Ethiopia’s failure to implement the Algiers Agreement after the 1998-2000 border war and recent human rights concerns have eroded this advantage.
Path Forward
Experts recommend Ethiopia:
- Pursue transparent diplomacy with Eritrea
- Develop economic integration projects
- Join regional bodies like the East African Community
- Strengthen domestic democratic institutions
Only through consistent soft power can Ethiopia achieve sustainable sea access while maintaining regional stability.
Main photo: Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders at border meeting, January 2019 (Office of the Prime Minister)
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license. Original article.