M23’s Capture of Uvira Exposes Fragility of U.S.-Brokered DRC Peace Deal, Raises Regional War Fears
Analysis: The swift military advance underscores deep-seated geopolitical and economic interests that a paper agreement could not contain.
In a move that starkly undermines a recent U.S.-brokered peace accord, the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group has entered the strategic city of Uvira in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), sending tens of thousands of civilians fleeing and triggering fears of a direct confrontation with neighboring Burundi. The offensive, which began on December 1, reached Uvira’s outskirts on December 9, according to security and military sources cited in a report by Le Monde.
A Deal Unraveled Before the Ink Dried
The timing of the offensive is particularly damning. It comes less than a week after Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame ratified an agreement in Washington, hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as a “miracle.” Analysts now question the fundamental viability of that deal, which included promises to secure supplies of strategic minerals—like cobalt and coltan—for the U.S. high-tech industry from the resource-rich but conflict-ridden region.
“The capture of Uvira is not just a military setback; it’s a diplomatic catastrophe,” says a regional security analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity. “It reveals that the signatories, particularly Rwanda and its M23 proxies, were either negotiating in bad faith or that the agreement failed to address the core drivers of the conflict: territorial control, ethnic tensions, and the lucrative illicit mineral trade.”
Humanitarian and Security Collapse in Uvira
The advance on Uvira precipitated scenes of chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Witnesses described columns of Congolese army (FARDC) soldiers fleeing south, some abandoning weapons and uniforms, while others attempted to board boats on Lake Tanganyika under chaotic conditions. Reports emerged of looting by retreating soldiers.
“The M23 came dropping bombs,” one FARDC officer told Le Monde. A local civil society representative described a city under siege: “There are isolated shots about every 30 minutes, everyone is holed up in their homes.”
The United Nations reports that over 30,000 Congolese have crossed into Burundi within a week, fleeing the fighting. This mass displacement adds to one of the world’s most severe and protracted humanitarian emergencies.
The Burundian Factor: A Tinderbox on the Lake
The seizure of Uvira critically alters the regional calculus. The city lies directly across Lake Tanganyika from Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura, a mere 20 kilometers away. Burundi, which has deployed an estimated 18,000 troops in eastern DRC since 2023 and has historically turbulent relations with Rwanda, now faces a hostile, Rwandan-backed force on its doorstep.
“This moves the conflict from a Congolese internal crisis to a direct interstate security threat,” explains the analyst. “Uvira is a vital logistical hub. Controlling it allows M23—and by extension, Kigali—to potentially cut off Burundi from the DRC and project power along the lake. It brings the region a step closer to the full-scale regional war that Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye has warned about.”
International Response and the Path Forward
In response to the offensive, the United States and several European nations issued a joint statement on Tuesday calling on M23 and Rwanda to “immediately” cease hostilities. However, the statement’s impact appears negligible against the momentum of the military advance, supported by an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 Rwandan soldiers according to UN experts.
The events around Uvira suggest that resolving this conflict will require more than high-level diplomatic accords. It demands a coherent strategy that addresses Rwanda’s security concerns, the legitimate governance grievances within eastern DRC, the economic underpinnings of militia financing, and now, the legitimate security fears of Burundi. Until then, the cycle of offensive, ceasefire, and broken agreement is likely to continue, with civilians paying the highest price.
Primary Source: This analysis is based on reporting from Le Monde.