A Clash of Authority and Influence

The political landscape of Mali is defined by a deepening fissure between two formidable figures: General Assimi Goïta, the 42-year-old President of the Transition, and Imam Mahmoud Dicko, the 71-year-old former head of the High Islamic Council of Mali (HCIM). This is not merely a personal rivalry but a contest between different sources of power—military control versus religious and popular influence—that will determine the trajectory of the Sahelian state.

As reported by Mali 24, the conflict escalated significantly in December 2023 when Imam Dicko traveled to Algiers at Algeria’s invitation to mediate between Bamako and the northern rebel Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA). This move, undertaken without the transitional government’s consent, was perceived as a direct challenge to Goïta’s authority and marked a definitive rupture.

Divergent Paths: From Allies to Adversaries

The history between the two men adds layers to the current standoff. Both were instrumental in the events leading to the fall of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in 2020. Imam Dicko, as a patron of the M5-RFP protest movement, provided significant popular and moral backing. General Goïta, leading the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP), executed the coup.

However, the alliance was short-lived. Goïta’s consolidation of power, including his removal of interim President Bah N’Daw in May 2021, set Mali on a path of assertive sovereignty, distancing itself from Western partners and aligning with Russia. Imam Dicko, meanwhile, has positioned himself as a critical voice, culminating in his December 2025 appointment as the “moral referent” for the newly formed opposition coalition, the Coalition of Forces for the Republic (CFR).

The Geopolitical Chessboard

This domestic power struggle is inextricably linked to broader regional and international realignments:

• Goïta’s Camp: The transitional president’s strength lies in the military, the support of fellow Sahelian junta leaders in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), and the strategic partnership with the Russian Federation. His government has scored symbolic victories, like the recapture of Kidal, and has outright rejected the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement.
• Dicko’s Arena: The Imam draws power from his vast religious network, his enduring popularity with a segment of the Malian populace, and his newfound backing from Algeria—the traditional mediator in Mali’s peace process now at odds with Bamako. His alignment with the CFR provides a political platform.

Analysis: What’s at Stake for Mali

The “battle of Dicko vs. Goïta,” as termed by the source analysis, represents more than two men vying for influence. It is a manifestation of the fundamental questions facing Mali: Who holds legitimate authority in a country under prolonged transition? How is national dialogue conducted when key actors are geographically and politically estranged?

The situation creates a precarious duality. President Goïta controls the state apparatus and is pursuing a security-first, sovereignty-driven agenda with foreign backing. Imam Dicko, from his base in Algiers, embodies an alternative pole of influence, leveraging religious credibility and opposition networks to challenge the transition’s direction and legitimacy.

This standoff complicates any path toward elections or national reconciliation. A lasting resolution requires either the reintegration of dissenting voices like Dicko’s into a Malian-led process or their marginalization—a risky prospect given the Imam’s deep-rooted influence.

The Road Ahead

The coming months will test the resilience of both models. General Goïta must demonstrate that his government’s security gains and international pivots translate into tangible stability and economic progress for Malians. Imam Dicko and the CFR will aim to prove that their coalition can present a coherent and credible political alternative that resonates beyond the capital.

As the source article poignantly concludes, drawing on the historical metaphor of Ségou, “power is betrayal.” In Mali’s complex political theater, alliances are fluid, and today’s ally can be tomorrow’s rival. The ultimate test will be whether this intense competition can be channeled into a structured, peaceful political process, or if it further deepens the divisions within a nation striving for unity and stability.

Primary Source: This analysis was developed using the report “Analysis: The Imam and the President” from Mali 24 as its factual foundation.