South Africa’s Strategic Autonomy: A Risky Path in Global Politics

South Africa stands at a critical juncture in its history, navigating a world order that is increasingly fractured and unpredictable. The United States, once the undisputed architect of global stability, now appears determined to retain its superpower status while shirking the responsibilities that come with it. This shift has created both dangers and opportunities for middle-power nations like South Africa—but is the country equipped to seize the moment?

The Peril and Promise of Strategic Autonomy

In response to global realignments, South Africa has adopted a policy of strategic autonomy—a foreign policy approach that emphasizes independence and non-alignment in international affairs. The goal is clear: to maneuver between competing global powers without becoming overly reliant on any single bloc. But as the old saying goes, “with great power comes great responsibility.” In this case, the responsibility lies in executing this strategy with precision, foresight, and diplomatic skill—qualities that, according to experts, South Africa currently lacks.

Strategic autonomy is not for the faint of heart. Few small or mid-sized nations have successfully walked this tightrope. Those that have—like India, Brazil, and Ireland—possess distinct advantages: economic leverage, bureaucratic competence, political cohesion, and a clear-eyed understanding of their place in the world.

“Strategic autonomy is not the norm in global affairs. It is very rare for small countries to succeed at it without at least some costs.”

South Africa, by contrast, faces significant structural and governance challenges. Rampant corruption, institutional decay, and a lack of professional expertise in foreign policy and security arenas threaten to undermine its ambitions before they even take flight.

Three Pillars for Success

If South Africa is to turn strategic autonomy from a buzzword into a viable strategy, it must focus on three core areas: continental leadership, bureaucratic excellence, and preparedness for international backlash.

1. Prioritize Africa—Or Perish

South Africa’s future is inextricably linked to that of the African continent. With a population expected to double to nearly 3 billion by 2070, Africa represents the last great frontier of demographic and economic growth. No other region in the world offers such potential.

“Purely in terms of population size, Africa will be more important than ever before.”

But potential alone is not enough. South Africa must lead the charge in strengthening regional integration, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). By fostering intra-African trade and shifting from raw material exports to value-added manufacturing and services, South Africa can help build a cohesive economic bloc capable of negotiating on equal footing with global heavyweights.

Failure to do so would not only stifle South Africa’s own development but also leave the continent vulnerable to continued exploitation and fragmentation.

2. Pursue Professional Excellence—Not Political Patronage

There is no sugarcoating it: South Africa’s public institutions are in a state of disrepair. Nowhere is this more evident than in its diplomatic and security services. The practice of cadre deployment—placing loyalists over experts—has hollowed out the state’s capacity to formulate and execute coherent policy.

“South Africa’s political stewardship of the economy has been poor, and driven by narrow political objectives of the ruling party-linked elite.”

The diplomatic corps, in particular, has suffered. Too many ambassadors are political appointees with little to no experience in international relations. Embassies are underfunded and underequipped, unable to effectively promote South Africa’s interests abroad.

To regain credibility, South Africa must:

• Limit political appointments in key diplomatic roles
• Consolidate embassy presence to strategic locations
• Invest in professional training and resources for diplomats
• Rebuild security institutions like the SANDF, police, and intelligence services

Without these reforms, strategic autonomy will remain a pipe dream.

3. Prepare for Backlash—And Have a Plan B

Pursuing an independent foreign policy is not without risks. As South Africa has already experienced with the Trump administration’s response to its stance on Gaza, choosing a non-aligned path can invite retaliation—whether in the form of trade tariffs, aid cuts, or diplomatic isolation.

South Africa must anticipate these reactions and develop contingency plans. This means diversifying trade partners, seeking alternative investment sources, and building alliances beyond traditional Western powers. Reactive diplomacy is not enough; the country must be proactive, agile, and strategic in its engagements.

A New World, A New Opportunity?

Despite the challenges, a multipolar world order offers unique opportunities for countries like South Africa. By playing global powers against each other, the nation—and the continent—could finally leverage its resources, demographics, and geographic significance to secure better trade terms, investment deals, and political influence.

“A new bipolar or multipolar world could enable South Africa and Africa to play off global powers against each other, to maximise opportunities for national economic development and independence.”

But this will only happen if South Africa gets its own house in order. It requires visionary leadership, institutional reform, and a collective commitment to putting national interest above partisan gain. The people of South Africa must become agents of their own destiny—not bystanders in a geopolitical game played by others.

Conclusion: The Stakes Could Not Be Higher

South Africa’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is a high-risk, high-reward endeavor. In a world where great powers are increasingly self-serving and unpredictable, the desire for independence is understandable. But ambition must be matched with capability.

By recentering its focus on Africa, professionalizing its institutions, and preparing for the inevitable blowback, South Africa can still carve out a meaningful role for itself on the global stage. The alternative—continued decline and irrelevance—is simply not an option.

This analysis is based on insights from Adam Habib, Vice-Chancellor of SOAS, University of London, and Imraan Valodia, Pro Vice-Chancellor at the University of the Witwatersrand. It draws on their expertise in political economy, international relations, and development studies.