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Ethiopia Should Pursue Red Sea Access Through Diplomacy, Not Coercion
Escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea highlight the need for strategic soft power approaches
Growing Regional Tensions Over Maritime Access
The recent diplomatic tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea—fueled by Ethiopia’s declared intention to secure direct access to the Red Sea—have raised concerns about potential regional conflict.
While Ethiopia’s need for sea access is economically and strategically justified, its confrontational approach risks alienating neighbors and destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Experts suggest Ethiopia should leverage its historic diplomatic influence and economic partnerships to negotiate sustainable solutions.
Historical Context of Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first publicly declared Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions two years ago, emphasizing the country’s geographic right to Red Sea access. However, Ethiopia’s recent Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland created diplomatic friction with Somalia and increased Egyptian military involvement in the region.
The situation remains complex due to Ethiopia’s exclusion from the Saudi-led Red Sea Forum and Eritrea’s growing alliances with Egypt and Sudan.
Missed Opportunities for Soft Power Diplomacy
Ethiopia’s historical approach to Eritrea has often prioritized coercion over consensus. The 1962 annexation of Eritrea by Emperor Haile Selassie, which sparked a 30-year independence struggle, represents a critical failure in diplomatic strategy.
Even after Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia failed to establish formal diplomatic frameworks, instead relying on temporary alliances that ultimately collapsed into conflict, including the devastating Tigray war.
The Power of Attraction Over Coercion
Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power offers valuable insights for Ethiopia’s current predicament. During the EPRDF era, Ethiopia demonstrated this potential through:
- Double-digit economic growth attracting significant investment
- Leadership in regional peacekeeping missions
- Major infrastructure projects like the LAPSSET corridor
Path Forward: Rebuilding Trust and Influence
To achieve sustainable sea access, Ethiopia must:
- Engage Eritrea through transparent diplomacy
- Develop mutual economic integration projects
- Strengthen democratic governance domestically
- Participate actively in regional organizations
Only through consistent application of soft power principles can Ethiopia achieve its strategic goals while maintaining regional stability.
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license. View license details.
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