Destiny, Conflict, and the Battle for the Red Sea: A Reflection on Power and People
The Unchanging Path of Destiny
“We walk the paths written for us… and whoever has a fate must walk it. And he whose death lies in a land—shall not die elsewhere.”
— Abul Alaa Al Ma’arri (973–1057)
This profound quote from the classical Arab poet reflects a belief central to many faiths: the concept of unchangeable destiny. While some traditions emphasize divine predetermination, others champion free will. These contrasting worldviews have long fueled religious and political conflicts.
Today, we witness these themes unfolding with dangerous consequences in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
ABEN and Abiy Ahmed: Escalating Tensions
The Amhara splinter party ABEN recently made headlines with its controversial statement rejecting Eritrea’s independence. This provocative declaration follows Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s parliamentary speech suggesting Ethiopia’s 139 million citizens need Red Sea access—a thinly veiled reference to Eritrea’s port of Assab.
Abiy’s rhetoric signals a return to imperialistic ambitions disguised as national strategy. While framed as peaceful dialogue about sea access, his persistent militarization and inflammatory statements reveal deeper intentions. His declaration that “If our generation can’t get it, future generations will” makes clear his designs on Assab won’t fade.
A Cycle of Historical Conflict
Eritrea’s struggle for self-determination dates back to King Haile Selassie’s era. After WWII British trusteeship, Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia—only to have its autonomy crushed when Selassie dissolved its parliament. This betrayal ignited a 30-year armed struggle culminating in 1991 independence.
Now, after three decades of recognized sovereignty, Eritrea faces renewed threats—not just from Addis Ababa, but bolstered by foreign alliances, particularly with the UAE, whose port interests align with Abiy’s aspirations.
Regional Instability and Power Plays
Within Ethiopia, Abiy has exacerbated multiple conflicts—from suppressing Tigray (despite the Pretoria Agreement) to dividing Amhara factions and attempting to co-opt the TPLF—all to consolidate power. ABEN appears to be another tool in his strategy to marginalize the FANO militia.
This “divide and rule” approach has plunged Ethiopia deeper into crisis. Meanwhile, Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki’s authoritarian rule faces its own collapse from lawlessness and unaccountable governance.
Lessons from the Arab Spring
Tunisian poet Abul Qasim al-Shabi’s words, which became an Arab Spring anthem, resonate profoundly today:
“When people choose life, fate will certainly respond. The gloom of night must give way, and chains must be broken.”
These verses remind us that the Horn of Africa’s people deserve stability—not the recycled ambitions of power-hungry leaders.
A Call for Reason Amid Chaos
In 2023, as famine threatened and war spread, calls for Eritrea to open its ports for humanitarian aid were dismissed as betrayal. Today, the same regime claims readiness to allow aid—a stark example of shifting priorities amid crisis.
The region’s history need not repeat itself if leaders can embrace dialogue over dominance. As one elder’s dark humor suggests: “If war leads to shiny cities like Europe’s, why not start a war with America and ask for a Marshall Plan?” This bitter joke underscores a painful truth—too often, wars are fought without resources, recovery plans, or reason.
The path forward requires wisdom to break this destructive cycle.
This article summarizes an original report. Full credit goes to the original source at Awate.com.