Ethiopia Should Pursue Red Sea Access Through Diplomacy, Not Coercion
Rising Tensions in the Horn of Africa
The escalating war of words between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Ethiopia’s declared intention to secure direct access to the Red Sea has revived fears of regional conflict.
While Ethiopia’s quest for sea access is economically and strategically justified, its confrontational approach risks alienating neighbors and destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Experts suggest Ethiopia should leverage its historic diplomatic influence and economic partnerships to negotiate sustainable port agreements through soft power rather than confrontation.
Historical Context of Maritime Disputes
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first publicly declared Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions two years ago, recently reiterating that Ethiopia’s proximity to the Red Sea makes it unacceptable not to “dream of touching it.”
The situation has been complicated by:
- Ethiopia’s exclusion from the Saudi-led Red Sea Forum
- Eritrea’s strengthening ties with Egypt and Sudan
- Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland
Missed Opportunities for Soft Power
Ethiopia’s historical relationship with Eritrea demonstrates repeated failures to exercise soft power effectively. The 1962 annexation of Eritrea by Emperor Haile Selassie and subsequent conflicts have created lasting tensions that continue to impact regional stability.
Under the EPRDF government, Ethiopia made significant economic progress but failed to translate this into durable diplomatic solutions regarding Assab port and other strategic interests.
Current Foreign Policy Challenges
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has pursued an increasingly personalized foreign policy that has:
- Eroded Ethiopia’s soft power edge
- Relied on nationalist rhetoric over principled negotiation
- Failed to institutionalize diplomatic breakthroughs
The government’s resort to hard power in domestic conflicts has further undermined its international standing and peacekeeping reputation.
Path Forward: Rebuilding Through Diplomacy
To achieve reliable sea access and regional stability, Ethiopia should:
- Prioritize transparent diplomacy with Eritrea
- Develop economic integration projects in the region
- Join or revitalize regional bodies like the East African Community
- Restore democratic governance domestically
As Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power suggests, Ethiopia must make itself attractive again through legitimate political values and foreign policies to achieve its strategic objectives.