Ethiopia Should Pursue Red Sea Access Through Diplomacy, Not Force
Strategic shift to soft power could stabilize the Horn of Africa while achieving Ethiopia’s maritime goals
Growing Tensions Over Maritime Access
The escalating rhetoric between Ethiopia and Eritrea over Red Sea access has reignited fears of regional conflict. While Ethiopia’s need for sea access is economically justified, its confrontational approach risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa and isolating Addis Ababa diplomatically.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first declared Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions two years ago, recently reiterating that Ethiopia must “dream of touching” the Red Sea given its proximity. However, Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland and exclusion from the Saudi-led Red Sea Forum have complicated regional dynamics.
Historical Missed Opportunities
Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea has been marked by missed opportunities for peaceful integration. The 1962 annexation of Eritrea by Emperor Haile Selassie, rather than maintaining the UN-backed federation, sparked a 30-year independence struggle. Analysts note Ethiopia failed to negotiate continued access to strategic Assab port during Eritrea’s independence process.
“The lack of principled state-to-state relations turned opportunity into hostility,” the report states, highlighting Ethiopia’s historical reliance on coercion rather than diplomacy.
The Soft Power Alternative
Drawing on Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power, the article suggests Ethiopia could leverage:
- Historic diplomatic influence
- Economic partnerships
- Infrastructure investments
- Regional peacekeeping reputation
During 2004-2018, Ethiopia’s economic growth and regional initiatives like LAPSSET demonstrated this potential. However, recent conflicts and human rights concerns have eroded this standing.
Path Forward
The report recommends Ethiopia:
- Engage Eritrea through transparent diplomacy
- Develop mutual economic integration projects
- Strengthen regional organizations
- Restore domestic democratic governance
“Only a state that commands internal legitimacy can project persuasive power abroad,” the analysis concludes, emphasizing that Ethiopia must make itself attractive to neighbors through shared interests rather than force.
Main photo: Ethiopian and Eritrean leaders at border meeting (Office of the Prime Minister, 2019)
Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license
This article summarizes original reporting from Ethiopia Insight. Full credit to the original source.