Where Investors Should Look Next: Key Market Trends Shaping the Decade
In January 2016, I published “The USA-Major Themes 2015-2033”, forecasting that this period would mirror 1895-1913 – a pivotal era of industrial, geopolitical, and financial transformation. As we progress through this cycle, striking historical parallels are emerging that every investor should understand.
Striking Historical Parallels: Then vs. Now
1. Trade Protectionism Resurgence
Then: McKinley’s 1897 Dingley Tariff raised duties to 52%, the highest in US history.
Now: The US-China trade war saw 25% tariffs on steel, 10% on aluminum, and duties on $360B+ of Chinese goods. As of March 2025, the Trump administration has implemented a 20% tariff on Chinese imports.
2. Energy Transition Accelerates
Then: Coal fueled US electrification (129M tons in 1880 to 517M by 1910).
Now: Renewables now supply 25% of US electricity (8.24 quadrillion BTUs in 2023).
3. Technological Disruption
Then: Ford’s Model T revolutionized mobility (8,000 cars in 1900 vs. 1.7M in 1916).
Now: Tesla leads as EV sales rise from 550K in 2015 to 6.6M in 2021. AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space tech are today’s transformative innovations.
4. Immigration & Urban Decentralization
Then: In 1910, 14.7% of Americans were foreign born.
Now: By 2025, that number will reach 15.8%, the highest since 1890, reshaping labor markets amid remote work dispersion.
5. Geopolitical Chokepoints
Then: Post 1898, the US took control of the Panama Canal.
Now: The same canal faces climate stress and global supply chain tensions.
6. Financial System Reset
Then: The Panic of 1907 led to the Federal Reserve’s creation in 1913.
Now: Leverage, volatility and asset speculation suggest another systemic restructuring is needed.
7. Gold as Stability Anchor
Between 1895-1913, gold represented trust during instability. Since March 2021 ($1690/oz), gold has remained a compelling hedge.
Investment Implications for the Coming Decade
Based on these historical parallels, investors should consider:
- Commodities: Accumulate gold, uranium, and copper positions
- Disruptive Tech: Focus on Tesla, BYD, and energy transition leaders
- Geographic Focus: Favor India, Vietnam, the Gulf, and the US over Europe
- Strategy: Long disruption, short complacency
Will These Trends Shape Your Investment Strategy?
Share your perspective by leaving a comment below
“`