Who Will Succeed Pope Francis? Key Candidates and Vatican Dynamics

As the Vatican prepares for the election of a new pope following the passing of Pope Francis, speculation is rife about who will take the helm of the Catholic Church. Canon law professor Rik Torfs notes, “This election is almost always the result of a compromise. The new pope is never a carbon copy of his predecessor.”

The Conclave Process: A Search for Consensus

With 136 cardinals eligible to vote (those under 80 years old), the conclave requires a two-thirds majority—87 votes—to elect the next pontiff. “They never get it right the first time,” says Torfs. “There are always several rounds of voting, with initial frontrunners often giving way to compromise candidates.”

Pope Francis appointed two-thirds of the voting cardinals during his 12-year papacy, ensuring a conclave of like-minded individuals. However, history suggests the next pope will likely diverge in style and approach. “Since World War II, each new pope has contrasted with his predecessor,” Torfs explains, citing shifts from conservative Pius XII to progressive John XXIII, and later from authoritarian John Paul II to more reserved Benedict XVI.

Potential Candidates: A Global Perspective

Emmanuel Van Lierde, former editor of Tertio magazine, observes a “pendulum movement” in papal elections. With Pope Francis having elevated many cardinals from Asia, Latin America, and Africa, these regions may produce strong contenders:

Asian Frontrunners

The Vatican’s push for stronger ties with China makes an Asian pope a strategic possibility. Leading candidates include:

• Ambo David (Philippines) – Recently appointed, studied in Leuven
• Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) – Currently working in Rome’s curia
• Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar) – Another prominent Asian cardinal

African Cardinals Face Challenges

While Africa boasts growing Catholic populations, Torfs and Van Lierde doubt a black pope will emerge soon. “African cardinals tend to be very conservative,” Torfs notes, citing opposition to LGBTQ+ rights and, in some cases, anti-Islamic stances. Ghana’s Peter Turkson, though brilliant, has drawn criticism for protesting transgender support initiatives.

Europe’s Declining Influence

With Catholicism’s center of gravity shifting southward, European progressives face diminished clout. “Representatives from other continents now challenge Europe’s leadership,” Torfs observes. Non-European cardinals often lack Roman experience and networks—key disadvantages in papal politics.

One exception is Cristobal Lopez Romero, the Spanish-born Archbishop of Rabat, Morocco. “He transcends continents,” Van Lierde remarks, making him a potential consensus candidate.

The X-Factor: Politics Over Piety?

Torfs identifies an ironic criterion for papal success: “You can’t be the spitting image of Jesus.” He cites Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin as exemplary but “too good” for the role. “A touch of mischief helps,” Torfs quips, emphasizing the political savvy needed to navigate conclave dynamics.

As the Catholic Church stands at a crossroads, the next pope will inherit pressing challenges—from clerical abuse scandals to debates about women’s roles and LGBTQ+ inclusion. The conclave’s decision will shape the Church’s trajectory for decades to come.

Source: Mali24